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+--- Thread: [Stocks] 2016 Stock Market Crash (/showthread.php?tid=5189469)
2016 Stock Market Crash - thales - Mar 1, 2016
Stock market crash coming in 2016, no doubt. Here is some factual information to back up my claim.
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Unemployment up:In the week ending February 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 272,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 262,000. The 4-week moving average was 272,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 273,250.
Source: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/eta20152015.pdf
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Oil production at a 43 year HIGH (Oil in general is bad):The U.S. pumped an average of 9.43 million barrels per day last year, according to new government figures. That's the highest level since 1972 and represents an impressive growth of 89% since 2008.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/01/investing/us-oil-production-near-record-opec
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Billionaires Dumping Stocks:For example, at the end of the second quarter of 2012, Berkshire Hathaway held 10.33 million shares of Johnson & Johnson.(1) At the end of the second quarter of 2014, it held only 327,100 shares.(2) Over a two-year period, Buffett’s holding company sold off 96.8% of its holdings in Johnson & Johnson.
Berkshire Hathaway also culled its holdings in Kraft Foods Group, Inc. (NASDAQ/KRFT). In the second quarter of 2012, Warren Buffett’s holding company held 58,826,390 shares; two years later, it held just 192,666 shares. That represents a 99.7% sell-off.
In position number seven, The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE/PG) is still one of Warren Buffett’s top holdings. That said, Berkshire Hathaway currently owns 52,793,078 shares of Procter & Gamble, or two percent of the company. But four years ago, it held 59.6 million shares. In just four years, Warren Buffett has dumped 11.5% of his holdings in Procter & Gamble.
Source: http://www.profitconfidential.com/economic-analysis/upcoming-stock-market-crash/
More predictions of well accredited people:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-tom-demark-is-predicting-an-ugly-fall-for-the-sp-500-in-march-2016-02-25?mod=MW_story_recommended_default&Link=obnetwork
http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016/
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China: The Chinese Bubble Has Begun to Pop. All time new lows.
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-28/china-stocks-crash-down-more-4-fresh-15-month-lows
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Student Loans:The U.S. government backs nearly all student loans, so ratings agencies pin a high credit rating to these debts, even though a student may not have the ability to repay. Right now, the government is on the hook for over $1.2 trillion in outstanding student loans that need to be paid back.
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Patterns before last recession(s):
Retail Sales have dropped the most since before the last recession. The same is true with wholesale sales.
U.S. factory orders fell in December of 2015 by the most in a year, according to the Commerce Department.
Real U.S. GDP growth is slowing.
U.S. export growth has been weakening.
Corporate profits are declining.
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Stocks are OVERPRICED:
Chart (Click to View)
VIEW THIS CHART
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S&P 500 Breaking trendlines and LOW volume:
Chart (Click to View)
VIEW THIS CHART
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Dow Jones 10 year trendline broken:
Chart (Click to View)
VIEW THIS CHART
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Some ETF's to bet against the market and make money OFF the crash:
VXX: iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN
VIXY: ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures
FAZ: Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X ETF
DWTI: VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil ETN
SQQQ: ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
UVXY: ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures
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Small disclaimer:
I am not responsible for losses or gains based on what you've read from this post. This is purely my opinion from my experience and research. I will not be held liable for any monetary issues you stumble upon. All information is property of the sources posted; if no source posted it can be found online. I do not identify or am a certified financial advisor or any sort of economist.
* - Kіng - Mar 1, 2016
Great post, very informative of the current situation of the global markets. To add to your SPX500 chart analysis: There is a bearish divergence between the increasing value and the volume over the past 7 years.
* - thales - Mar 1, 2016
(Mar 1, 2016 10:20 PM)Kіng Wrote: Great post, very informative of the current situation of the global markets. To add to your SPX500 chart analysis: There is a bearish divergence between the increasing value and the volume over the past 7 years.Thanks :D I'll add some more tomorrow if I feel up to it. Feeling super lazy now lmao.
* - Kіng - Mar 1, 2016
(Mar 1, 2016 10:45 PM)thales Wrote: Thanks :D I'll add some more tomorrow if I feel up to it. Feeling super lazy now lmao.
As it is right now, it's already superb. I'm not much of a fundamental analysis fan but the info you put together are spot on.
* - YerMad - Mar 2, 2016
It's kind of tough to bet against the market with those stocks you listed because we don't know when (or if) the stock market will crash and they are made for holding short term. Do you know if there's any non leveraged ones that are safe to hold long term?
* - Ropsled - Mar 2, 2016
I just watched 'the big short', great movie. It made me think that if there is another big crash, I doubt it will be in the market which everybody thinks it will be in. More likely a different market that nobody was expecting. SP500 and DJI is simply far too obvious, they might drop some more, but I think the real chaos will be somewhere else.
* - thales - Mar 2, 2016
(Mar 2, 2016 06:00 AM)Ropsled Wrote: I just watched 'the big short', great movie. It made me think that if there is another big crash, I doubt it will be in the market which everybody thinks it will be in. More likely a different market that nobody was expecting. SP500 and DJI is simply far too obvious, they might drop some more, but I think the real chaos will be somewhere else.What are you talking about; somewhere else and they are too obvious? The oil and energy industry has already crashed big time and any market that tanks negatively affects the major indexes.
(Mar 2, 2016 02:31 AM)YerMad Wrote: It's kind of tough to bet against the market with those stocks you listed because we don't know when (or if) the stock market will crash and they are made for holding short term. Do you know if there's any non leveraged ones that are safe to hold long term?UVXY is super short term. VXX is probably the best bet for long term if you're looking for an etf. Otherwise you'll have to short the s&p500, dow, and nasdaq themselves if you want even longer term.
* - DublA - Mar 2, 2016
As a business student, great post.
Gives me something to talk about in school lol
* - thales - Mar 2, 2016
(Mar 2, 2016 09:12 AM)DublA Wrote: As a business student, great post.Thanks and np enjoy haha 🤝
Gives me something to talk about in school lol
* - Aus10 - Mar 4, 2016
Well the S & P 500 is at 2k ;)
* - Ξthereal - Mar 4, 2016
(Mar 4, 2016 12:39 PM)Aus10 Wrote: Well the S & P 500 is at 2k ;)
But for how long? I doubt it will last a very long time, elections will knock this thing
* - thales - Mar 4, 2016
(Mar 4, 2016 12:39 PM)Aus10 Wrote: Well the S & P 500 is at 2k ;)Just wait. It won't happen immediately. I've put 2k into this so far.
* - Kіng - Mar 4, 2016
(Mar 4, 2016 12:39 PM)Aus10 Wrote: Well the S & P 500 is at 2k ;)
It fought with $2000 so hard today and failed it badly. Can't complain though, it bounced off daily 50 ma and previous support perfectly (within a dollar depending on where you put the line on your chart) so the position reversals profits were almost to the ideal.
* - Beamer1029 - Mar 4, 2016
Wow awesome post! Thanks!
* - Ξthereal - Mar 4, 2016
I'm short 2K worth of 10 x SPDR shorts @ 200 a piece.
Keep it simple.