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+--- Thread: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] (/showthread.php?tid=6212731)
[FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - frenchusurper - Jul 9, 2022
Dear hackforum,
Below is the single scientifically-proven betting method for making money. (see research paper below)
I should sell that for much higher because it's usually a hard-earned lesson...Please remember no betting scheme ever works. Ever.
Method
Bet on the favorite
This opportunity results from the cognitive bias of David and Goliath. People overbet on the underdog and underbet the favorite. Therefore making it more profitable to bet on the favorite because the chance of it winning is underestimated.
Illustration :
For a soccer game, let's say these are the odds:
- 1:1.47 if the favorite wins (that is, you would get $1.47 out of each dollar you bet)
- 1:3.92 if equality
- 1:6.15 if the underdog wins
It turns out that the probability of the favorite winning is on average higher than 1/1.47 = 68%
How to make the most out of this method :
- Diversify : You will lose sometimes. But you will gain more on average. So you should reduce your risk to a minimum with diversification
- Clear odds : You really want to bet on a clear favorite. That is 1.01 to 1.5 odds.
Source :
Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias - Erik Snowberg
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - Happy Slap - Jul 10, 2022
So the method is just betting on the favourite? Surely I’m missing something lol
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - frenchusurper - Jul 10, 2022
(Jul 10, 2022 10:48 AM)Happy Slap Wrote: So the method is just betting on the favourite? Surely I’m missing something lol
I was also surprised when I learned this ! But this is a simple human bias.
Keep in mind that the advantage you gain is very very low, around 1-2%. This is equivalent to the house's edge on blackjack. So you'll really need a lot of bets to make it worth your while. To really make profits from it, you would need a capital of $100K.
It may sound low, but it's definitely much more consistent than any other betting method.
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - RVR1907 - Jul 10, 2022
(Jul 10, 2022 11:02 AM)frenchusurper Wrote: I was also surprised when I learned this ! But this is a simple human bias.
Keep in mind that the advantage you gain is very very low, around 1-2%. This is equivalent to the house's edge on blackjack. So you'll really need a lot of bets to make it worth your while. To really make profits from it, you would need a capital of $100K.
It may sound low, but it's definitely much more consistent than any other betting method.
I still don't see any method here. So you're saying bet on odds between 1.01 to 1,5. What wrong with a 1,55 bet? Or a 1,7?
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - frenchusurper - Jul 10, 2022
(Jul 10, 2022 01:24 PM)RVR1907 Wrote: I still don't see any method here. So you're saying bet on odds between 1.01 to 1,5. What wrong with a 1,55 bet? Or a 1,7?
Excellent question, thank you for your interest! It just needs to be clear which is the favorite and which is the underdog, for the human bias to work.
1:1.5 is just a random mark, the main takeaway is that the more it increases, the less effective the bias would be (and thus, your edge shrinks).
If you do sports bet, have you ever put money on odds at 1:1.06 ? I'm sure you haven't. Because that's boring. And players love the risk. So they bet on the opposite participant, which has 1:200 odds. Thus shifting the risk/reward ratio. Because 1:200 odds would mean that only 0.5% of players are betting on the underdog. The research paper explains that it's actually much more. So let's use human greed against themselves and play the long and boring game.
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - SteadyGFX - Jul 11, 2022
im gonna try this out lets hope for the best
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - frenchusurper - Jul 11, 2022
(Jul 11, 2022 10:14 AM)SteadyGFX Wrote: im gonna try this out lets hope for the best
Hope it works for the best.
Remember you can still lose, so diversification is key !
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - lijk - Oct 12, 2022
(Jul 11, 2022 10:55 AM)frenchusurper Wrote: Hope it works for the best.
Remember you can still lose, so diversification is key !
Explain diversification
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - zarabota - Mar 9, 2023
Thank you for sharing
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - dragonsocialmedia - Mar 11, 2023
Thanks for the method.
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - lixusS - Mar 11, 2023
Games nowadays are to volatile but I like your research
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - skmb999 - Jun 9, 2023
Thank you for sharing
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - Bodzio - Jun 11, 2023
There is still high probability for the favourite between 1 to 1.5 to lose.
RE: [FREE] The only money making method with sport bets [FREE] - MudgePudge - Jun 14, 2023
Hmmm interesting . I may have to try this