[frenchusurper]

Dear hackforum,

Below is the single scientifically-proven betting method for making money. (see research paper below)
I should sell that for much higher because it's usually a hard-earned lesson...Please remember no betting scheme ever works. Ever.

Method

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Bet on the favorite

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This opportunity results from the cognitive bias of David and Goliath. People overbet on the underdog and underbet the favorite. Therefore making it more profitable to bet on the favorite because the chance of it winning is underestimated.

Illustration :
For a soccer game, let's say these are the odds:

• 1:1.47 if the favorite wins (that is, you would get $1.47 out of each dollar you bet)
  
• 1:3.92 if equality
  
• 1:6.15 if the underdog wins
  

It turns out that the probability of the favorite winning is on average higher than 1/1.47 = 68%

How to make the most out of this method :

• Diversify : You will lose sometimes. But you will gain more on average. So you should reduce your risk to a minimum with diversification
  
• Clear odds : You really want to bet on a clear favorite. That is 1.01 to 1.5 odds.
  

Source :
Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias - Erik Snowberg

[Happy Slap]

So the method is just betting on the favourite? Surely I’m missing something lol

[frenchusurper]

So the method is just betting on the favourite? Surely I’m missing something lol

I was also surprised when I learned this ! But this is a simple human bias.

Keep in mind that the advantage you gain is very very low, around 1-2%. This is equivalent to the house's edge on blackjack. So you'll really need a lot of bets to make it worth your while. To really make profits from it, you would need a capital of $100K.

It may sound low, but it's definitely much more consistent than any other betting method.

[RVR1907]

I was also surprised when I learned this ! But this is a simple human bias.

Keep in mind that the advantage you gain is very very low, around 1-2%. This is equivalent to the house's edge on blackjack. So you'll really need a lot of bets to make it worth your while. To really make profits from it, you would need a capital of $100K.

It may sound low, but it's definitely much more consistent than any other betting method.

I still don't see any method here. So you're saying bet on odds between 1.01 to 1,5. What wrong with a 1,55 bet? Or a 1,7?

[frenchusurper]

I still don't see any method here. So you're saying bet on odds between 1.01 to 1,5. What wrong with a 1,55 bet? Or a 1,7?

Excellent question, thank you for your interest! It just needs to be clear which is the favorite and which is the underdog, for the human bias to work.
1:1.5 is just a random mark, the main takeaway is that the more it increases, the less effective the bias would be (and thus, your edge shrinks).


If you do sports bet, have you ever put money on odds at 1:1.06 ? I'm sure you haven't. Because that's boring. And players love the risk. So they bet on the opposite participant, which has 1:200 odds. Thus shifting the risk/reward ratio. Because 1:200 odds would mean that only 0.5% of players are betting on the underdog. The research paper explains that it's actually much more. So let's use human greed against themselves and play the long and boring game.

[SteadyGFX]

im gonna try this out lets hope for the best

[frenchusurper]

im gonna try this out lets hope for the best

Hope it works for the best.
Remember you can still lose, so diversification is key !

[lijk]

Hope it works for the best.
Remember you can still lose, so diversification is key !

Explain diversification

[zarabota]

Thank you for sharing

[dragonsocialmedia]

Thanks for the method.

[lixusS]

Games nowadays are to volatile but I like your research

[skmb999]

Thank you for sharing

[Bodzio]

There is still high probability for the favourite between 1 to 1.5 to lose.

[MudgePudge]

Hmmm interesting . I may have to try this