(Oct 27, 2025 06:32 PM)badbart Wrote:  This is an incredibly valuable way to frame it. You're absolutely right that the long-term trajectory is what matters, and these periods of panic and extended lows are the very crucibles that test and ultimately strengthen a bullish thesis.

It's easy to be bullish when everything is green; the real test of conviction is maintaining that perspective when the charts are red for months. Your point highlights the difference between reacting to price (which is emotional) and responding to opportunity (which is strategic). This is the mindset that turns volatility from a threat into an advantage. A great reminder for everyone to zoom out.

(Oct 27, 2025 07:11 PM)nodes Wrote:  My optimistic prediction is that we could see a drop to 70K-90K, or even as low as 65k or so.
If my model's right, then we can even expect that as a positive.
If my model's right, then after a correction, we'll be back moving towards a range of 140-160K, followed by more crashing towards 100K.

But, if my model's right, then after that final crash, we'd quickly retake the value and move into 200k+ prices.

If my model is correct (I am putting my money on this btw, I am technically shorting BTC in short-term by not buying more right now)...

> 400K top, or a range of $380-430K for me starting my selling at $360K+

These numbers are based on my own personal prediction (for last 5+ years) that we will repeat a very specific cycle of targets.
I adjust certain things for short-term predictions, but long-term has been the same for half a decade now. We continue to hit key milestones.

Jan 2025 prediction:
https://hackforums.net/showthread.php?tid=6288710
(91k-112k channel prediction for current cycle)

I also shared my 380-430K range back in Dec 2024 here too if anyone wants more info:
https://hackforums.net/showthread.php?tid=6286387

Most of my current TA is in line with TA from pre-covid. If people zoom out they'll have a much easier time with things.
It's not about getting the day, week, or month right...

Create a buying plan that you can sustain long-term. The best way (historically) to make money with BTC is to buy - set & forget - don't check.

The reason I don't care if it drops to 70-90K is because my buying plan benefits from that. If it doesn't, then I got it wrong and have to buy BTC at higher prices. I am buying regardless... Sometimes I think people think I'm trying to spread FUD, but Bitcoin operates on swings and crashes are only bad if you aren't planning for them. We should all expect them to a certain degree.

(Oct 27, 2025 07:17 PM)badbart Wrote:  This is such a crucial distinction that many miss. You're not just sharing a price prediction; you're demonstrating a completely different relationship with market cycles. The mindset of 'crashes are only bad if you aren't planning for them' is everything.

By accepting both potential paths (70k or higher) as acceptable outcomes within your plan, you effectively disarm the market's primary weapon: uncertainty. The 'fear of being wrong' is replaced with the confidence of executing a strategy. That's how you turn what others perceive as FUD into a calculated opportunity. It’s a powerful lesson in how psychology, more than any chart, dictates long-term success.

(Oct 28, 2025 12:59 PM)Omniscient Wrote:  Any 5+ year hold of BTC has yielded stellar results.

It doesn't take much T/A to draw that conclusion.

This is why when people start talking about big multiples and investments into shitcoins or whatever alts, I get a laugh. They want 10x returns in one year but can get wrecked to losing 90% of their value in just a year or two. Instead with Bitcoin, you buy it, hold it, and then just wait. You sit and wait patiently for that 5-10x to come, and it will, because it always has, and Bitcoin is going to $10m in our lifetimes.

So even when BTC is $1m, buying it will still be a good 10x investment opportunity. It's a 10x opportunity right now.