[Hackers]

My perspective is that we can take big hits to current values and maintain a bullish trajectory.

Ignore the overall lines, I am only trying to highlight that there have been numerous times in the past where people panicked, and at times prices were low for months or years... But these were technically buying opportunities on long-term bullish trends.



This chart also does a good job of showing some channels I've mentioned in past for potential swings between 70-140K, and stronger support at 90k+ and possible resistance at 120K.

Some of these lines have been true for many years now. How you interpret this chart is up to you... You can make a case for a gradual reduction phase to enter another winter, or a case that we haven't truly peaked.

Looking at halving charts is another great way to see long-term trends

[badbart]

This is an incredibly valuable way to frame it. You're absolutely right that the long-term trajectory is what matters, and these periods of panic and extended lows are the very crucibles that test and ultimately strengthen a bullish thesis.

It's easy to be bullish when everything is green; the real test of conviction is maintaining that perspective when the charts are red for months. Your point highlights the difference between reacting to price (which is emotional) and responding to opportunity (which is strategic). This is the mindset that turns volatility from a threat into an advantage. A great reminder for everyone to zoom out.

[Hackers]

This is an incredibly valuable way to frame it. You're absolutely right that the long-term trajectory is what matters, and these periods of panic and extended lows are the very crucibles that test and ultimately strengthen a bullish thesis.

It's easy to be bullish when everything is green; the real test of conviction is maintaining that perspective when the charts are red for months. Your point highlights the difference between reacting to price (which is emotional) and responding to opportunity (which is strategic). This is the mindset that turns volatility from a threat into an advantage. A great reminder for everyone to zoom out.

My optimistic prediction is that we could see a drop to 70K-90K, or even as low as 65k or so.
If my model's right, then we can even expect that as a positive.
If my model's right, then after a correction, we'll be back moving towards a range of 140-160K, followed by more crashing towards 100K.

But, if my model's right, then after that final crash, we'd quickly retake the value and move into 200k+ prices.

If my model is correct (I am putting my money on this btw, I am technically shorting BTC in short-term by not buying more right now)...

> 400K top, or a range of $380-430K for me starting my selling at $360K+

These numbers are based on my own personal prediction (no changes for last 5+ years) that we will repeat a very specific cycle of targets.
I adjust certain things for short-term predictions, but long-term has been the same for half a decade now. We continue to hit key milestones.

Jan 2025 prediction:
https://hackforums.net/showthread.php?tid=6288710
(91k-112k channel prediction for current cycle)

I also shared my 380-430K range back in Dec 2024 here too if anyone wants more info:
https://hackforums.net/showthread.php?tid=6286387

Most of my current TA is in line with TA from pre-covid. If people zoom out they'll have a much easier time with things.
It's not about getting the day, week, or month right...

Create a buying plan that you can sustain long-term. The best way (historically) to make money with BTC is to buy - set & forget - don't check.

The reason I don't care if it drops to 70-90K is because my buying plan benefits from that. If it doesn't, then I got it wrong and have to buy BTC at higher prices. I am buying regardless... Sometimes I think people think I'm trying to spread FUD, but Bitcoin operates on swings and crashes are only bad if you aren't planning for them. We should all expect them to a certain degree.

---

TLDR:

60K top was just a milestone

126K isn't a significant milestone (it is current ATH though!)
^ read that again. The current all-time-high is not a notable milestone.

100K was more important for my model than 126K is..

160K would be another important milestone in my model

I don't have any major milestones between 160K and peak, which my model predicts as 400K or so.

By "model" I basically just mean support & resistance lines and specific analysis on the halving events & cycles from the start of Bitcoin. There's a strong emphasis on 2017 onwards as well.

[badbart]

My optimistic prediction is that we could see a drop to 70K-90K, or even as low as 65k or so.
If my model's right, then we can even expect that as a positive.
If my model's right, then after a correction, we'll be back moving towards a range of 140-160K, followed by more crashing towards 100K.

But, if my model's right, then after that final crash, we'd quickly retake the value and move into 200k+ prices.

If my model is correct (I am putting my money on this btw, I am technically shorting BTC in short-term by not buying more right now)...

> 400K top, or a range of $380-430K for me starting my selling at $360K+

These numbers are based on my own personal prediction (for last 5+ years) that we will repeat a very specific cycle of targets.
I adjust certain things for short-term predictions, but long-term has been the same for half a decade now. We continue to hit key milestones.

Jan 2025 prediction:
https://hackforums.net/showthread.php?tid=6288710
(91k-112k channel prediction for current cycle)

I also shared my 380-430K range back in Dec 2024 here too if anyone wants more info:
https://hackforums.net/showthread.php?tid=6286387

Most of my current TA is in line with TA from pre-covid. If people zoom out they'll have a much easier time with things.
It's not about getting the day, week, or month right...

Create a buying plan that you can sustain long-term. The best way (historically) to make money with BTC is to buy - set & forget - don't check.

The reason I don't care if it drops to 70-90K is because my buying plan benefits from that. If it doesn't, then I got it wrong and have to buy BTC at higher prices. I am buying regardless... Sometimes I think people think I'm trying to spread FUD, but Bitcoin operates on swings and crashes are only bad if you aren't planning for them. We should all expect them to a certain degree.

This is such a crucial distinction that many miss. You're not just sharing a price prediction; you're demonstrating a completely different relationship with market cycles. The mindset of 'crashes are only bad if you aren't planning for them' is everything.

By accepting both potential paths (70k or higher) as acceptable outcomes within your plan, you effectively disarm the market's primary weapon: uncertainty. The 'fear of being wrong' is replaced with the confidence of executing a strategy. That's how you turn what others perceive as FUD into a calculated opportunity. It’s a powerful lesson in how psychology, more than any chart, dictates long-term success.

[Hackers]

This is such a crucial distinction that many miss. You're not just sharing a price prediction; you're demonstrating a completely different relationship with market cycles. The mindset of 'crashes are only bad if you aren't planning for them' is everything.

By accepting both potential paths (70k or higher) as acceptable outcomes within your plan, you effectively disarm the market's primary weapon: uncertainty. The 'fear of being wrong' is replaced with the confidence of executing a strategy. That's how you turn what others perceive as FUD into a calculated opportunity. It’s a powerful lesson in how psychology, more than any chart, dictates long-term success.

Lol I am sensing a little GPT in your reply here, but yes, thank you <3

This is exactly it... I never look at Bitcoin as an asset that has a specific price. Always ranges...
When you target a RANGE, you can deal with the fluctuation and plan for it specifically.

I also don't buy/sell within the ranges frequently. If I say I want something at $70-90K and I buy it at $70K and it pumps to $85K, I will actually buy more because it's not a "gain" for me until it escapes the range/support&resistance channels. There's no life changing money for me at 70 vs 85, so it might as well be the same number representing "nice but not that nice" as a motto.

[Omniscient]

Any 5+ year hold of BTC has yielded stellar results.

It doesn't take much T/A to draw that conclusion.

This is why when people start talking about big multiples and investments into shitcoins or whatever alts, I get a laugh. They want 10x returns in one year but can get wrecked to losing 90% of their value in just a year or two. Instead with Bitcoin, you buy it, hold it, and then just wait. You sit and wait patiently for that 5-10x to come, and it will, because it always has, and Bitcoin is going to $10m in our lifetimes.

So even when BTC is $1m, buying it will still be a good 10x investment opportunity. It's a 10x opportunity right now.

[Hackers]

Any 5+ year hold of BTC has yielded stellar results.

It doesn't take much T/A to draw that conclusion.

This is why when people start talking about big multiples and investments into shitcoins or whatever alts, I get a laugh. They want 10x returns in one year but can get wrecked to losing 90% of their value in just a year or two. Instead with Bitcoin, you buy it, hold it, and then just wait. You sit and wait patiently for that 5-10x to come, and it will, because it always has, and Bitcoin is going to $10m in our lifetimes.

So even when BTC is $1m, buying it will still be a good 10x investment opportunity. It's a 10x opportunity right now.

Yeah agreed, definitely. And yes... They should look up the stats on meme/alt coins for how many get destroyed during the normal BTC cycle...

I found one of our discussions back at end of 2024 about this & your overall predictions for it. Until we have new data suggesting otherwise, history shows that holding is best.

I do think people can take profit between though.

Do you have a % of your portfolio that is for holding vs a % for selling, or do you go all-in on when taking profit?