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Jun 13, 2016 06:32 PM
(This post was last modified: Jun 14, 2016 12:53 PM by ๖ۣۜEnlightened.)
Most of you are probably wondering, why the hech has BTC almost doubled over the last month?!
The answer is according and based around one reason and that is the upcoming Halving on July 1.
What is the halving?
Every 4 years, the reward for every block is halved. It's kind like your "leap year" for Bitcoin.
The last 4 years, the reward has been 25BTC...as of July 10, the reward will be 12.5BTC per block.
What does this mean? Mainly, less income for miners UNLESS the BTC/USD rate increases. Which is what we are experiencing right now.
Miners are largely operated from China, so what we are seeing now is the Chinese market largely investing into Bitcoin to hold their profit for mining and keep profit secure for the next 4 years. We COULD very well see $1000 before the end of 3rd quater.
If the price were not to rise before halving, mining would not be profitable. Without miners, transactions cannot be confirmed and therefor how will Bitcoin survive? It can't.
The price raise was very predictable, I've mentioned halving and price rise in many of my posts, personally, I am not surprised!
Happy investing, hope I have answered some of your curious questions.
P.S I am more than happy to answer any of your questions, as well as listen to anyone who contests this theory (while I doubt you will succeed I'm more than up for some friendly debate)
I will also post some chart analysis in the OP later on, when I have some more time on my hands :)
July 10*
BTC/USD*
And no. The halving should have a SMALL impact but in this case the skyrocketing is mostly because of the Chinese currency crashing and many Chinese investing into btc.
Yes they say Chinese are buying lots of BTCs too.
so yah they are investing as they believe those miners on the sitchuan mountain spirits :)
So, bitcoin prize will go down after halving, would it be good thing to invest then?
Awesome, didn't new about it.
In next 4 years at this time same situation arises again?
also britain leaving the EU will crash their economy and they will look to invest in other currency btc is the perfect choice
(Jun 14, 2016 07:40 AM)miserego Wrote: July 10*
BTC/USD*
And no. The halving should have a SMALL impact but in this case the skyrocketing is mostly because of the Chinese currency crashing and many Chinese investing into btc.
Finally someone who fucking understands, thanks for explaining.
(Jun 14, 2016 09:40 AM)uʍop ǝpısdn Wrote: Finally someone who fucking understands, thanks for explaining.
no no no the halfing will make it rocket otherwise it will not be profitable for miners
then miners stop and BTC is no more
This is just plain ole market manipulation probably by the Chinese miners and BTC holders who can easily sway the price of BTC.
MtGox inflated BTC price and now it's Chinese miners. I do expect BTC to continue to go up but like anything artificially inflated it's very likely going to pop eventually and crash. BTC has no reason it's gone from $400 to nearly $700.
The halving is just an excuse and they're doing this beforehand in order to cash out at the highest prices possible with the hope they can inflate BTC enough that the halving won't kill their business model. It likely won't but they might make less income.
I do believe there is going to be a monster bubble coming very soon, that will skyrocket BTC over $1200.
With a massive crash of 50-60% value loss.
Ultimately landing BTC @ $500-$700, in max 2 months after the halving.
Mission completed!
Well done China, well done
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Jun 14, 2016 12:42 PM
(This post was last modified: Jun 14, 2016 12:50 PM by ๖ۣۜEnlightened.)
(Jun 14, 2016 11:20 AM)Omniscient Wrote: This is just plain ole market manipulation probably by the Chinese miners and BTC holders who can easily sway the price of BTC.
MtGox inflated BTC price and now it's Chinese miners. I do expect BTC to continue to go up but like anything artificially inflated it's very likely going to pop eventually and crash. BTC has no reason it's gone from $400 to nearly $700.
The halving is just an excuse and they're doing this beforehand in order to cash out at the highest prices possible with the hope they can inflate BTC enough that the halving won't kill their business model. It likely won't but they might make less income.
The way I see it, is that they're pushing the price up before the halving in order to continue making their mining profitable. We could see prices in the four figures, but as long as the price pushes past $800 then their mining investment is safe (25BTC @ $400 = 12.5BTC @ $800)
But yes looking at it short term, that could be the case (your last statement), but I'm sure the Chinese are not dumb enough to effect their investment in the long term by dumping down below $800USD if they were to continue buying it.
The difference between MtGox and China, is that this is real volume. MtGox simply pushed it up themselves and the whole bubble had no real reason behind it.
(Jun 14, 2016 07:40 AM)miserego Wrote: July 10*
BTC/USD*
And no. The halving should have a SMALL impact but in this case the skyrocketing is mostly because of the Chinese currency crashing and many Chinese investing into btc.
So you're saying this is just coincidental and that the Chinese economy has never fallen as weak as it is today?
You're forgetting the whole concept on what the halving will do to miners. I've been following this for the past few months, my theory has a lot more to it than yours simply being "the Chinese economy is weak, therefor they are investing"
(Jun 14, 2016 11:28 AM)ǤªƝƝƗƈus Wrote: I do believe there is going to be a monster bubble coming very soon, that will skyrocket BTC over $1200.
With a massive crash of 50-60% value loss.
Ultimately landing BTC @ $500-$700, in max 2 months after the halving.
Mission completed!
Well done China, well done
Check out the values after the last halving....
It rose from $1 a month or so before the halving to over $32
Then we saw not long after a stabiliser at $2
(Jun 14, 2016 09:40 AM)uʍop ǝpısdn Wrote: Finally someone who fucking understands, thanks for explaining.
So you're siding with a very one-sided theory?
Very educated move 👍
Have either of you even looked at what happened after the last halving? Or better yet looked at the discussions over at BitcoinTalk?
(Jun 14, 2016 09:42 AM)Bovril Coin Wrote: no no no the halfing will make it rocket otherwise it will not be profitable for miners
then miners stop and BTC is no more
Halving*
Explain to me then, if the price were to stay at $400USD how will miners continue to profit at 50% less than what they were getting before? What reasons would they have to continue mining, as they would be making a loss?
They'd either sell their equipment and dump the coin they have left OR pump up the coin value to keep their investment safe, which is what we are seeing now.
Your sarcasm is ironic and tells me about how much knowledge you have about this
....
(none)
You can't base your facts on previous events (halving) in the past, there was totally different kind of money involved, there is smart money involved now.
2015 avg. BTC price @ $200 - $250. Were miners loosing money then ? So why would they loose money now @ $400.
BELIEVE me, even after the halving and BTC price @ $400, miners would still be mining and making profit.....
Just like they did in the past (2015)
(Jun 14, 2016 02:24 PM)ǤªƝƝƗƈus Wrote: 2015 avg. BTC price @ $200 - $250. Were miners loosing money then ? So why would they loose money now @ $400. Difficulty. They might be getting more $ per coin but they are getting fewer coins.
with the same amount of fiat pouring in and the supply of new coins halved there is nowhere for the price to go but up.
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Jun 14, 2016 04:57 PM
(This post was last modified: Jun 14, 2016 04:59 PM by ๖ۣۜEnlightened.)
(Jun 14, 2016 03:54 PM)James Brown Wrote: Difficulty. They might be getting more $ per coin but they are getting fewer coins.
with the same amount of fiat pouring in and the supply of new coins halved there is nowhere for the price to go but up.
Exactly right
I don't understand why that is so hard to see
Price is in direct correlation with difficulty, if I was a miner and value was set to stay at $400 and not go up at halving time, I would have already sold and liquidated and called it a day.
(Jun 14, 2016 02:24 PM)ǤªƝƝƗƈus Wrote: You can't base your facts on previous events (halving) in the past, there was totally different kind of money involved, there is smart money involved now.
2015 avg. BTC price @ $200 - $250. Were miners loosing money then ? So why would they loose money now @ $400.
BELIEVE me, even after the halving and BTC price @ $400, miners would still be mining and making profit.....
Just like they did in the past (2015) What has 2015 got to do with anything, the block reward was still 25BTC?
And yes; you can base it on previous events. Halving only happens once every four years and so far the price movement is an exact replication.
Figure that it was the Chinese pump and dump, as soon as they get they currency's stability sorted they will sell their Bitcoins for Yuan and the price will crash.
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