[SIM-888979]

I was pretty bored so I decided to open up Excel and find out what is the current probability of receiving any Clover awards on Hack Forums.

I used statistics from the Awards Page, using the "Find" function to determine the numbers of receivers the Clover awards had, here is what I found:

• Green Clover: 490
  


• Purple Clover: 96
  


• Gold Clover: 20
  


• Total Clovers: 606
  

I them proceed to go onto the statistics page of Hack Forums (stats.php) and found out the average number of posts per day (I'm unsure if threads are counted as posts, but I assumed that it was and did not add in threads into the post count) which was 13,726.56 posts per day. The award was first given out (a Green Clover) on the 3rd of June, 2016. We're NOT taking into account the posts made in private subforums such as group forums and perhaps admin subforums. This is not something I can find out, and cannot remove from the average post per days. I think it is not possible to win a Clover award in private subforums.

After doing some calculations, here are the odds (these are estimates):

• Any Clovers: 1 in every 6025.20 posts
  


• Green Clovers: 1 in every 7451.60 posts
  


• Purple Clovers: 1 in every 38034.01 posts
  


• Gold Clovers: 1 in every 182563.25 posts
  

Excel Spreadsheet:

Spoiler (Click to View)

Actual Odds:



You're more likely to die from a car accident than to receive a green clover award, you're more likely to die from a bee string than to receive a gold clover award, also you're more likely to be murdered than to receive a purple clover award. So basically, you must be really lucky to own one of these awards. 🎉

[District]

Damn really nice stats man. Surprised you put the effort in.

Nice find.

[SIM-888979]

Damn really nice stats man. Surprised you put the effort in.

Nice find.

Yeah, I was pretty bored - I was inspired after reading this thread: https://hackforums.net/showthread.php?tid=5559391

[Jаson]

did you just try to get the green clover?

i c you

[SIM-888979]

did you just try to get the green clover?

i c you

I actually only made 450 posts since 3rd June 2016, so I won't be expecting a Clover award any time soon.

[IPIKIN]

Well how lucky are those users who have all three?

[Jаson]

Well how lucky are those users who have all three?

fucking postwhores bro

you also need to reach X characters in your post to even have a chnace

[Night]

fucking postwhores bro

you also need to reach X characters in your post to even have a chnace

You can quote people, and that counts as characters.

[Knucklez.]

Well I have a clover and haven't died yet so that's pretty cool

[Jаson]

You can quote people, and that counts as characters.

i mean its how i got mine

but people will argue it doesn't count

[Yandere]

Nice, thanks for the estimates. Now I just need to be lucky enough to get one. Lol. Maybe one day.

[Fortunate]

Nice informative thread. I guess I'm really lucky to have the green clover.
I wonder what's the chances of getting the PokemonGO award.

[DOG]

You can quote people, and that counts as characters.

Im not sure about that

[Jаson]

Nice informative thread. I guess I'm really lucky to have the green clover.
I wonder what's the chances of getting the PokemonGO award.

zero it got discontinued

[SIM-888979]

Well how lucky are those users who have all three?

The odds are still the same considering that each post is an "independent" roll of the dice.

If we're talking about getting ALL 3 together in one post, that's 1 in every 51,740,736,894,679.30 posts. That's an astronomical level kind of odds.