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US draft. Likely?

So with Russia basically destroying the US economy by changing over from the petrodollar - and this tweet going out by the SSS... The draft is looking likely.

If the US doesn't hold onto power through economic means, it's done for.
https://twitter.com/SSS_gov/status/1506677659182551040
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I sincerely doubt a draft would happen before active duty, national guard, and reservists even got in the fight.

That’s the order it would go in just for the army, that’s not counting all the other branches.
After the reservists they would call all the veterans on inactive status back to active duty before even a mention of a draft.

I wouldn’t want 90% of American civilians that are fat and easily offended standing next to me in a war zone.
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This tweet reads as so very, very tone deaf. To the point it's actually disappointing and concerning to see the SSS tweet it.

Certainly, in a large scale war, conscription is going to happen. It has happened in every major conflict the US has been a part of. World War I, World War II, the Korean War (hell, it was going on before and after the Korean War, throughout much of the Cold War), and the Vietnam War. So there's no reason to believe it wouldn't happen again. That's just a fact we all live with.

I also don't believe we're particularly close to a conflict that would invoke the draft. Sure we're closer than one than we've been in a very long time. It's hard to deny that. But I don't believe an armed conflict with the likes of Russia or China is going to happen any time soon.

Could Russia pull us into one? Sure- invade a NATO country and we're in. But, and maybe this is blissful ignorance, I believe the Ukrainian invasion is it's own thing and not a precursor to further war. Russia claims numerous reasons for invading the country- it's more than just a land grab or set up for further invasion.

Even if the Ukraine invasion was a precursor to Russia wanting war (why would it?), I also believe it has demonstrated their general inability to wage it on a large scale. A country that, by all means, should've been toppled with ease, has given them staunch and respectable resistance. If this was a precursor, I think it just delayed the next step. As I'm sure even the Russian government recognizes, more than ever, their weaknesses. And they would be foolish to move on to the next step without first fixing their issues (which won't be so easy, particularly now).

The impact on the US economy has largely been a result of the US government itself- not Russia. We've imposed the sanctions that have negatively impacted our dollar. We're choosing not to trade with Russia. To not import their wheat or oil is very much our choice. I don't think that translates to the US then declaring war due to economic impact.

Also, our economy, and the inflation concern, is more convoluted than that. Inflation, and the weakening of the dollar, is more than just the impact from the global economy. It's a side-effect of the pandemic, finally coming to realization. Reality is we should've increased the federal funds rate earlier, but it was a politically charged decision. So it's not surprising that our inflation rate has tripled what it ought to be, due to slow reactions.

Either way, inflation has been on the trajectory it's on now since March of 2021. Long before the Russia-Ukraine situation. And March's Consumer Price Index (CPI, one of the most prominent ways to measure inflation) is actually better than February, even with the sanctions in full-swing due to the ongoing conflict.

We're in for a bumpy ride, there's no denying that. But I think we're more apt to end up in another Cold War-esque situation than an armed conflict. It already feels like we are- with us fighting a puppet war via the Ukrainian people. Either way, a full-scale armed conflict between Russia, China, and NATO doesn't end well for anyone. So I just don't see it happening; I don't think any of the parties that could initiate it (Russia particularly) see a true value in doing so.
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Ive seen couple of non russian and non Ukrainian countries already drafting their citizens.
Can you get out of being drafted if you’re a skilled professional?
(Mar 24, 2022 06:05 AM)ASLR Wrote:  Can you get out of being drafted if you’re a skilled professional?

There are no exemptions like this within the Selective Service currently. You have to figure that most professions have some sort of comparable job within the military. So you'd either be conscripted into such a job, or just end up in a combat role regardless (depending on need). Now, if you worked for a company under contract of the DoD, then I'd say you'd end up exempt pretty quickly.

Also remember, they draft young to old. If you're between 20 and 26 you're likely in the first rounds of the draft (with the youngest being first). And it becomes less and less likely from there, depending on age. But, if the conflict is significant enough, they will increase the maximum age as necessary. The older you are, the less likely you are to be drafted.
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(Mar 24, 2022 04:51 AM)Komodo Wrote:  I sincerely doubt a draft would happen before active duty, national guard, and reservists even got in the fight.

That’s the order it would go in just for the army, that’s not counting all the other branches.
After the reservists they would call all the veterans on inactive status back to active duty before even a mention of a draft.

I wouldn’t want 90% of American civilians that are fat and easily offended standing next to me in a war zone.
LOL You made my day bro. Though the state of the american military does not look so great now, I mean look at this:



(Mar 24, 2022 06:40 AM)Polymath Wrote:  LOL You made my day bro. Though the state of the american military does not look so great now, I mean look at this:




I’ll take a look at the video later today, my connection at work is pretty bad.

It really depends on the unit in the US. Some don’t do much training and anyone that enlists can go to. Others are very trained and ready to go.
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(Mar 24, 2022 04:51 AM)Komodo Wrote:  I wouldn’t want 90% of American civilians that are fat and easily offended standing next to me in a war zone.

Don't stand next to them, stand behind them.
I don't buy into any conspiracy whatsoever, but, in the event, a draft did happen, I think that would mean we would be at war with Russia.

If not them, then another large country. It would be nuclear warfare any way we look at it, effectively destroying the world IMO.

I'm just gonna sit back, try to pretend nothing is happening because there is nothing I can do to help (some of us can't join the Military even if we wanted to) and try to enjoy my best life.

Live each day like you'll die tomorrow, you never know what's going to happen.
No matter what happens, I'll still be at the crib puffin ganja
(Mar 24, 2022 04:51 PM)bk randy Wrote:  No matter what happens, I'll still be at the crib puffin ganja

On everything you ain't catching me doing shit for a country that fucks us.
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(Mar 24, 2022 05:12 PM)Wage Wrote:  On everything you ain't catching me doing shit for a country that fucks us.

on gang bruh on gang haha
(Mar 24, 2022 05:19 PM)bk randy Wrote:  on gang bruh on gang haha

You'll see me in Chicago totin' before you see me on the battlefield unless they get me that new hellcat.
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(Mar 24, 2022 05:21 PM)Wage Wrote:  You'll see me in Chicago totin' before you see me on the battlefield unless they get me that new hellcat.

Fuck their bribes, I'll serve crack before I serve this country...


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