[Braco22]

Hello,

So as you can see, BTC.D is aiming for a new ATH and it's nothing short of a bloodbath for the altcoins, since 2023 when BTC rallied to $40k after the ETF was approved.



I understand that the main driver for such a high and sustainable BTC Dominance even a year post-halving are the institutional buys via the ETF, but still it's something not seen historically.



As you can see, in the 2016 cycle the total marketcap of the entire altcoins (excluding stables) was $2.05 BIL pre-halving and $52.17 BIL post-halving. This is a very big increase of about x26. In the 2020 cycle it was $74.81 BIL pre-halving and $1.34 TRIL post-halving. That's almost a x20 increase! Now we're having a $1.09 TRIL pre-halving and 1 year post-halving we're actually LOWER than the pre-halving amount.

Are we going to continue the trend, and get AT LEAT a x3 increase from the pre-halving year, or is this a "very different" bullrun?

I'd like to hear your opinions on this.

[Omniscient]

It does feel like we're about to do a 3-10x in the next 36 months under Trump.

[Braco22]

I think the year of the midterms from 2026 Nov to 2027 Nov, things most of the time do not look good with a lot of uncertainty with the Congress... So up until Q2 of 2026 I think we're in the "clear".

However, on-topic: I do believe that the BTC.D may see a slightly higher increase in the next 2 weeks up to 66.50%.

[Kingdom]

Imo the BTC will heavily go to 3X least within 24Months if we look closer to grayscale reports and dominance

Rest who knows what will happen when the time comes but the sentiments are the most likely this to happen

[webzen]

if BTC.D is up then all altcoin will go down. its very bad

[Omniscient]

if BTC.D is up then all altcoin will go down. its very bad

Nobody should have their portfolio mostly alts. I recommend 90% BTC hold.

[Braco22]

Imo the BTC will heavily go to 3X least within 24Months if we look closer to grayscale reports and dominance

Rest who knows what will happen when the time comes but the sentiments are the most likely this to happen

Midterm year is always bearish for S&P 500, so I expect nothing different. I give BTC the absolute it can run towards the upside no later than Q1/Q2 of 2026.

[Kingdom]

Midterm year is always bearish for S&P 500, so I expect nothing different. I give BTC the absolute it can run towards the upside no later than Q1/Q2 of 2026.

Thats true Q3-Q4 is always bullish for BTC and historical characteristics speak itself lets see whats come in 2025-2026 (Q3-Q4)

[Braco22]

I do believe that we just had our double top in terms of BTC.D, whereas the first top was in May and the second happened just while the Iran-Israel conflict was taking place.

With the 2 rate cuts on the horizon to EOY, and a lot of trade deals being announced this week and the last Monday of the deadline which is the 9th of July, I do believe that we will not see the BTC.D going any further to the upside. UNLESS ANOTHER BLACK SWAN EVENT HAPPENS, which I think is HIGHLY unlikely given the fact that the middle east was shaken just now. Not to mention the probable approval of Solana ETF and/or staked ETF version, which will bring the trust level a few steps higher of the entire alt market.

[Omniscient]

I'd like to see some pricing action up to $125k. With all the institutional buyers right now and low BTC stock in the exchanges I don't understand why we're not already there. Worries me actually.

[Braco22]

Yeah, I have the same question in mind. Most likely due to the uncertainty still from the tariffs and whatnot. But come the first rate cut, and we'll clear those uncertainties :)

[Braco22]

Looks like the BTC.D just broke key support. I won't expect a sharp decrease in value before the first rate cut.

[Braco22]

The BTC.D broke support and it's now 3 days out of the support range.

[Braco22]

BTC.D is still going downhill, ready for the 62.35% resistance.

[Costanza]

Beautiful pump my alt bags.