Oct 10, 2018 12:38 PM
(This post was last modified: Oct 10, 2018 01:06 PM by Cash.)
Hi guys, I've been managing my own sports betting fund for the past year and have had very good success with it. I'm a third year CS student at a university and like to experiment with machine learning.
I'm offering slots to purchase my NHL picks and will only be giving out a limited number of spots as of right now. (I don't like my models getting too much exposure). I will also be opening up a discord for premium members to discuss picks and betting tips.
If you purchase the service and need help setting up a sportsbook account, understanding the lines, etc. I will be able to provide a small PDF explaining how to do it.
This will be for NHL picks alone but I might open it up to NBA if I see some early success.
Sports betting is a little confusing to those who don't understand the strategy, math, and systems that are involved. So this post will be explaining a little bit behind it, so if you're interested, continue reading.
Here is a breakdown of my picks so far in 2018. (This about 300 tips or so)
Keep in mind the profit break down is based on $1 per bet (You personally pick whatever you want it to be). I track with using increments of $1-10 but in reality my unit size is much bigger. You should ideally be starting off with a chunk of $$ and using 1 unit as 0.5% of your bankroll. As confidence in my pick goes up, the amount bet goes up.
![[Image: ibgqZuf.png]](https://i.imgur.com/ibgqZuf.png)
This is for 2018 so it only includes the second half of the NHL season from last year (4/2/2018) was the first pick I logged in 2018 for NHL after the model was tweaked and started picking up steam. I average about a 10% return on my picks with a profit of 26.19 units, not bad at all.
I switched things around a bit for this year and basically the model spits out each team's chance to win. I compare that percentage with the Vegas line for that game, the difference between the two is how much I bet
This year I switched how I would be betting on the perceived edge I was finding against Vegas and have returned this:
![[Image: p8aVjyT.png]](https://i.imgur.com/p8aVjyT.png)
I get it, posting your picks after the games and saying "I made this pick" without any evidence to back it up really doesn't do me any good.
Starting tonight, on 10/10 I will be posting my 'free' picks until 10/17 to prove my belief in the model and its ability to work. You are welcome to tag along and see but after 1 week, I will be charging members for the picks. These picks will be posted as replies on this thread and I will also set up a Google doc for tracking the free plays.
Currently I will be allowing 15 slots per month to users. They will be available for purchase in increments of 1 week, 2 weeks, or 1 month (or maybe even longer) and the price will go down with each increment you purchase in. If you lose $$ in the time you purchased, you will receive a full refund.
It would help if you have previous betting knowledge (but I can guide you along the way if you don't) before buying into this and have good self control, bankroll management, and patience.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...edit#gid=0
10/10 Picks:
Ottawa +115 13.19 --> 15.17
Las Vegas +123 6.06 --> 7.45
Best of luck!
I'm offering slots to purchase my NHL picks and will only be giving out a limited number of spots as of right now. (I don't like my models getting too much exposure). I will also be opening up a discord for premium members to discuss picks and betting tips.
If you purchase the service and need help setting up a sportsbook account, understanding the lines, etc. I will be able to provide a small PDF explaining how to do it.
This will be for NHL picks alone but I might open it up to NBA if I see some early success.
Sports betting is a little confusing to those who don't understand the strategy, math, and systems that are involved. So this post will be explaining a little bit behind it, so if you're interested, continue reading.
Here is a breakdown of my picks so far in 2018. (This about 300 tips or so)
Keep in mind the profit break down is based on $1 per bet (You personally pick whatever you want it to be). I track with using increments of $1-10 but in reality my unit size is much bigger. You should ideally be starting off with a chunk of $$ and using 1 unit as 0.5% of your bankroll. As confidence in my pick goes up, the amount bet goes up.
This is for 2018 so it only includes the second half of the NHL season from last year (4/2/2018) was the first pick I logged in 2018 for NHL after the model was tweaked and started picking up steam. I average about a 10% return on my picks with a profit of 26.19 units, not bad at all.
I switched things around a bit for this year and basically the model spits out each team's chance to win. I compare that percentage with the Vegas line for that game, the difference between the two is how much I bet
This year I switched how I would be betting on the perceived edge I was finding against Vegas and have returned this:
I get it, posting your picks after the games and saying "I made this pick" without any evidence to back it up really doesn't do me any good.
Starting tonight, on 10/10 I will be posting my 'free' picks until 10/17 to prove my belief in the model and its ability to work. You are welcome to tag along and see but after 1 week, I will be charging members for the picks. These picks will be posted as replies on this thread and I will also set up a Google doc for tracking the free plays.
Currently I will be allowing 15 slots per month to users. They will be available for purchase in increments of 1 week, 2 weeks, or 1 month (or maybe even longer) and the price will go down with each increment you purchase in. If you lose $$ in the time you purchased, you will receive a full refund.
It would help if you have previous betting knowledge (but I can guide you along the way if you don't) before buying into this and have good self control, bankroll management, and patience.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...edit#gid=0
10/10 Picks:
Ottawa +115 13.19 --> 15.17
Las Vegas +123 6.06 --> 7.45
Best of luck!
