[whitehatfella]

Historically, the last two Bitcoin halvings had a large dip in the weeks/months leading up to it followed by the start of the real bull cycle. The bull typically lasts until the end of the year followed by the long bobo bear. We've recently entered the Bitcoin "danger" zone for this cycle to reoccur. But there are other catalysts in play this cycle that were not apparent in previous cycles. We have the Bitcoin ETF already being passed a few months ago and now a looming ETH ETF that will most likely pass this May.

Some might say this time is different as Bitcoin has never had a new ATH pre-halving but if you factor in inflation (which some might) then that is still true today.

Do you think the cycle repeats or do these other catalysts play a big factor?

whitehatfella ✌

[whitehatfella]

I feel like most people are overestimating the positive effect of this upcoming halving. 93.61% of the total Bitcoin supply has already been mined, basically all of the inflationary pressure is gone already. Dropping from <2% inflation to <1% inflation after this halving is less impactful on an absolute scale than previous halvings which accounted for much larger decreases (cba to actually calculate them).

From an economic and technical standpoint you are correct, but you are missing the psychological aspect of buyers and sellers which unfortunately plays the biggest role here.