(Oct 12, 2025 02:15 PM)Noble Wrote: No one can predict the price, especially when prices make new all-time highs. The prediction of prices puts a false narrative in your mind, and when the price does not reach the so-called prediction, it will be a mental letdown.
Anyone can predict the price.
It doesn't mean their prediction is accurate.
For example, much of the current price is in line with TA from years ago...
I will give you a quick example on tradingview because it's public & free.
This is just eyeballed, not precise by any means, but you can see how channels form when you do any sort of basic analysis of top-to-top or bottom-to-bottom.
With more precise TA, I have BTC at a possible drop to $70-90k.
I think having some buys at $95K is totally reasonable. We can see here that we could eat a crash to $95K and still be in line with a bull run over multiple years.
Even if you eyeball it, based on current data, we could say that by EOY we can expect to be in a channel of $95-140K (REMINDER: Eyeballing it). I haven't done a more precise TA on BTC for a while, but I think the current cycle can swing between $70K and $430K and I aim to make new buys around $90K or below (I am holding BTC currently, I am not selling because I think it
could go down. I just have cash just in case), and I would be interested in selling a lot starting at around $360K or so in case it has trouble breaking past 380.
A reasonable prediction could be that BTC will be at $100K for the new year, based on TA.
BUT we know about previous Novembers, Christmas, and NYE for BTC.
We can perhaps be even more bullish.
I put a target of $137,366 on Feb 28, 2026, but my real prediction is $95K-140K range for December 1 through March 1. I don't aim to be accurate because that's where investors get in trouble. If you invest with these channels in mind, you'll be better off. Don't try to profit off of a $100k BTC becoming $120K.
Instead, focus on the range. If it's in 95-140, I aint selling shit because I am confident in the range, not a single price between the top & bottom.
To simplify... If I buy at $95K and it hits $140K... why sell? That's not interesting enough to get out of the market.
Time in the market > timing the market.
I'm happy to buy at $95, and happy to buy at $120K. I'm not looking for sub-200K prices to sell at.
I think this is the point people miss... BTC operates on channels like other assets. Support & resistance.
Most of the previous cycles have stayed in line with this...
It's impossible to time things perfectly each time... But people can prepare for all scenarios. Keep cash in reserve for a drop. Accumulate. Consider taking profits when you approach the top of a channel if you are nervous. Don't be afraid to buy more if other indicators are strong...
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TLDR:
> I'm looking to make sure BTC doesn't drop
below my bottom prediction (70-90k). If it's $71k and strong, that's great.
> i'm looking for new support to be built up around the $140K channel top. If it's $140k and strong, new TA is needed. If it resists $140K, we'll look for the next time it can retest.
> i never try to make too many moves within the predicted range. $90-140K is the same price, to me. It's a range buy to monitor, not a range I try to profit from. That's how fees are paid & mistakes are made.