[ICTKUN]

I want to document my Bitcoin thesis publicly.

This is not financial advice, and I am not telling anyone to buy or sell Bitcoin.

This is simply my personal market view, based primarily on Candle Range Theory (CRT) and higher-timeframe price action.

I want this thread to remain here so people can come back to it later and judge the idea for themselves.

November 17, 2025 — The original BTC prediction

🔐 loading encrypted image…

🔐 loading encrypted image…

🔐 loading encrypted image…

On November 17, 2025, when BTC was trading around the $90K area, I posted a chart publicly.

My focus was not on the usual:

“Bitcoin is going to $X because of this news.”

I was looking at the yearly candle and the way the range was developing.

My post said:

“BTC yearly candle close in 1 month 15 days.
1 month LTF CRT confirmation let say it together when it happen.”

And then:

“If statement if the candle close as it should we gonna have the biggest crash of history and 64k is to be expected.”

The important part here is $64K.

That wasn't a random number I pulled from nowhere.

It came from my CRT range framework.

My Bitcoin CRT range

The levels I mapped were approximately:

Code

$108,343 — 1.0

$83,613 — 0.75

$64,528 — 0.50

$49,799 — 0.25

$38,432 — 0.0

This gave me a complete range rather than a single prediction.

And this is where I think people misunderstand the way I use CRT.

I'm not interested in predicting every candle.

I'm interested in understanding the range.

The $64K level

The first major level I was watching was approximately:

$64,500

This was the 50% point of my mapped range.

My thesis was that if the higher-timeframe conditions confirmed the bearish CRT idea, Bitcoin could eventually work its way toward this area.

And Bitcoin subsequently traded into that region.

But I want to make something very clear:

I am not saying the November post perfectly predicted the exact timing of the move.

It didn't.

The price objective and the timing are two different things.

The market took its time.

That's why I believe higher-timeframe analysis needs patience.

But I wasn't finished at $64K

This is the part that matters most to me.

When people look at a chart, they often want one number:

“Where is Bitcoin going?”

That's not how I look at it.

I have areas.

My original framework had:

$64K

Major 50% range level.

$49.8K

Deeper 25% range level.

$38.4K

The bottom of the range.

And this is where my long-term Bitcoin vision becomes interesting.


My Bitcoin buy zone: ~$38K

If Bitcoin eventually reaches the lower end of this range, around $38K, that is the area I personally consider my major long-term accumulation/buy zone.

Not because:

“$38K must happen.”

And definitely not because I know the future.

Code

It is because that is where the higher-timeframe range in my CRT framework points me.

There is a huge difference between:

“Bitcoin WILL go to $38K.”

and

“If Bitcoin reaches the lower end of this established range and the appropriate CRT confirmation appears, this is the area I will be watching for accumulation.”

The second statement is how I approach the market.

Why I don't chase Bitcoin

This is also why I don't get emotionally attached to Bitcoin being bullish or bearish.

I don't care about:

Code

Bitcoin maximalism
“BTC to $1M”
“BTC is going to zero”
influencers screaming targets
Twitter/X predictions
fear
FOMO

I care about price action.

Let price come to my levels.

If it doesn't?

Fine.

I don't need to trade.

Candle Range Theory

For anyone unfamiliar with my approach, CRT — Candle Range Theory — is based on understanding the range created by higher-timeframe candles and how price interacts with that range.

The higher the timeframe, the more important the range becomes to me.

I look at things such as:

Code

yearly range
monthly range
weekly range
daily range
liquidity
displacement
FVG
market structure shift
rejection
range expansion
range retracement

Then I drill down into the lower timeframe for confirmation.

The higher timeframe gives me the story.

The lower timeframe gives me the execution.

The biggest lesson from my November 2025 BTC call

For me, the lesson isn't:

“Look, I predicted $64K.”

That's too simplistic.

The lesson is:

Build the range first.

Then:

Wait for price to confirm the idea.

Then:

Execute only when the lower timeframe gives you the confirmation.

This is why I don't consider CRT a magic prediction system.

It's a framework.

The market can invalidate your idea.

And when it does, you accept it.


My current long-term BTC map

Code

So, if I simplify my original map:

$108K
⬇️
$83K
⬇️
$64K
⬇️
$49K
⬇️

$38K — major long-term zone

That is the roadmap I have been watching.

And if Bitcoin never reaches $38K?

That's completely fine.

A trader doesn't need the market to reach their preferred level.

The market is always right.

If BTC reaches my zone and gives me the CRT confirmation I want, I'll pay attention.

If it doesn't, I wait.

[Omniscient]

You're telling us your 2025 predictions now to document it? Shouldn't you have done that somewhere online in 2025?

For all we know you made dozens of predictions and that screenshot might not even be your account.

And crypto predictions are a dime a dozen.

With Bitcoin you only need to know one important thing...buy Bitcoin, hold, and STFU. No other advice or predictions required.