[LSD]

Bitcoin is digesting the summer’s parabolic moves, trading around 12 percent from the August all-time high. This is a relatively healthy pullback in a bull market that’s often required to prime the pump for the next leg up. Fundamentals remain positive: the dollar is still weak, institutions are still buying via ETFs, and BTC is still flowing off exchanges as it’s tightening supply in recent weeks.

It’s a historically lousy month for Bitcoin bulls. September has usually seen big corrections in the past. This year might not be so different, though with much of the earlier upside priced in, more sideways chop around $110K–$125K could be the theme, with support at $105K as a pivotal level. If that’s broken it’s open season on the downside, but if $105K can hold, the medium-term outlook remains constructive.

All the action is really in Q4. We have a confluence of factors that can turn the page after the September mayhem: rate cuts are a real possibility, ETFs are showing strong demand, and the network continues to hit new all-time highs in hash rate.

the short-term volatility is real, but a move toward $150K–$180K by the end of the year remains very much on the table.

[LSD]

STILL IN PLAY

[Braco22]

I do share your opinion on the probable ATH EOY. Between $130k and $150k was my guess estimate as well. Let GOLD and SP500 lead to new ATHs in September so that we can enter UPTOBER with some liquidity moves towards BTC/Crypto.

[LSD]

[digital2key]

Interesting read..thanks....

[Braco22]

Do an analysis on BTC.D and TOTAL3ES if you have the time. I think we will see BTC doing new ATHs wicks weekly, while trying to close by the end of October or early November above the $130k zone for 1-2 weeks. Then we will see BTC.D capitulate from 60.50-61% down to 53%. Also STABLES.D need to drop lower from 6.20% to 5-4.90% as well.

[LSD]

Do an analysis on BTC.D and TOTAL3ES if you have the time. I think we will see BTC doing new ATHs wicks weekly, while trying to close by the end of October or early November above the $130k zone for 1-2 weeks. Then we will see BTC.D capitulate from 60.50-61% down to 53%. Also STABLES.D need to drop lower from 6.20% to 5-4.90% as well.

to confirm a major altcoin rally:

-BTC Price: A weekly close above $125,000 signals the final leg of Bitcoin's rally.
-BTC Dominance: A weekly close below 58% after being rejected from ~61% is a trigger for rotating capital
-ETH/BTC: A major breakout in this pair confirms capital is rotating from Bitcoin to altcoins. (it has been for months)
-Stablecoin Dominance: A weekly close below 6.0% is the final confirmation that altseason is in full swing, justifying a large allocation to altcoins.

The bullish outlook for altcoins could be derailed by three main risks:

-A major economic shock, like a sudden Federal Reserve policy change, could trigger a market-wide crash. (unpredictable)
-Bitcoin's dominance might not fall if a major positive catalyst drives investment solely into Bitcoin. (recent catalysts are mostly priced in)
-Capital might only rotate into a few large altcoins (like Ethereum and Solana) instead of spreading across the broader market, leading to a limited rally rather than a full "altseason." This rally has been uplifted by institutional bidders for the most part. we need to see more retail or more institutions wanting more risk to be bullish on smaller alts.