[Omniscient]

I'm predicting in the next week or two that Tether depegs from the dollar causing sell offs and panic in the crypto market. It will last 24 hours or less that Tether depegs but the overall crypto market effect will hurt us for weeks and months.

This is my prediction of doom.

And yes, it's happened before.

[DewGho]

I'm predicting in the next week or two that Tether depegs from the dollar causing sell offs and panic in the crypto market. It will last 24 hours or less that Tether depegs but the overall crypto market effect will hurt us for weeks and months.

This is my prediction of doom.

And yes, it's happened before.

Could this affect other tokens/coins that are pegged to the dollar?
For example, DAI and similar ones?

[Mewtwo]

I would expect Bitcoin to drop 10-30% if Tether depegs. However, I also believe there could be a bigger rebound once folks realize that stablecoins can fail, but Bitcoin can’t. Its my only assumption especially with USDC depegging in 2023

[DewGho]

I no longer understand which cryptocurrency is best for storing money so as not to lose out on falling prices.

[Omniscient]

I no longer understand which cryptocurrency is best for storing money so as not to lose out on falling prices.

Bitcoin.

It's the only one guaranteed to survive. Personally I think Monero is a great long-term hold as well. It's privacy still not matched by any chain. There is a lot of value to that.

[SUI-3183372]

I don't see Tether depegging in a meaningful way, maybe ever again, at least not without some sort of 3rd party black swan event that has major implications across the entire landscape. My bet is that there ever is a depegging event, it is due to an already occurring market crash, it won't be the cause of a market crash.

Tether treasury has become incredibly well managed.

Edit:
Tether is holding massive amounts of gold (~120 tons), which has done very well for them, on top of the $10b in profit they made this year. Nothing is pointing towards insolvency or weak reserves.

[Omniscient]

I don't see Tether depegging in a meaningful way, maybe ever again, at least not without some sort of 3rd party black swan event that has major implications across the entire landscape. My bet is that there ever is a depegging event, it is due to an already occurring market crash, it won't be the cause of a market crash.

Tether treasury has become incredibly well managed.

I think it will be part market manipulation. Where major players cause market panic to gobble up BTC as cheaply as possible before we spike.

We're watching Gold and Silver rise in value. The US Dollar is nearly worthless because of debt and inflation. As it becomes more obvious that Bitcoin is real money those who don't have it, will want it desperately.

And yes, I can 100% be completely wrong. I'm just vibing this from what I see in the market and social media. Something is up. I see chatter about Tether, MSTR, and the major funds like Blackrock.

Right now, nobody is explain the market drop we saw the past day. No explanation to me means it's manipulation of the highest degree. I think today as being Monday it's just the start.

[SUI-3183372]

I think it will be part market manipulation. Where major players cause market panic to gobble up BTC as cheaply as possible before we spike.

We're watching Gold and Silver rise in value. The US Dollar is nearly worthless because of debt and inflation. As it becomes more obvious that Bitcoin is real money those who don't have it, will want it desperately.

And yes, I can 100% be completely wrong. I'm just vibing this from what I see in the market and social media. Something is up. I see chatter about Tether, MSTR, and the major funds like Blackrock.

Right now, nobody is explain the market drop we saw the past day. No explanation to me means it's manipulation of the highest degree. I think today as being Monday it's just the start.

I think MSTR is the black swan event looming over the entire landscape

The great issue with Microstrategy is their inability or refusal to sell BTC at high prices and then buy back at low prices. While most crypto folk think that the only play for a DAT is to keep accumulating and HODL, it's actually exactly the opposite. The only way a DAT wins is by actively managing their treasury. Of course this means playing the market and trying to time tops and bottoms, which isn't easy, but this leveraged HODL and do nothing else approach is the worst business strategy for a DAT. Eventually doing nothing is going to catch up to MSTR and they're going to find themselves in a really tough spot.


Another factor to consider is Japan. I was going to make a thread about this, but had doubts it'd get any engagement...
Japan's 10-year bond yield just hit ~1.8%, the highest we have seen in a while. However, the economy is pretty much still in recession and the yen is still getting crushed, and the Bank of Japan is still stuck in near zero (0.5%) rates. At the same time Japanese stocks are pumping because foreign inflows and companies like TSMC setting up there. Together, all of this means that Japan pretty much has no choice but to further hike rates, finally and fully leaving the negative rate era behind.

If this actually happens we will get a massive unwind on the yen carry trade. People who borrowed cheap yen to buy US stocks, BTC and other high risk assets will have to sell those assets to buy yen back on the way up.

For the crypto/degen community, this could mean that USD drops, global equities takes a hit, and crypto does as well. Notice how a few firms also started loading up on gold (Blackrock, Tether) which tells you that the big players are already hedging.
Very interesting read: https://substack.com/inbox/post/179099797


Michael Saylor forced to sell. Creates fiat reserves. MSTR down to lows of 2024.
DATs and all Saylor-derivative plays should be on the look out for what’s coming.

The USD Reserve was funded using proceeds from the sale of shares of class A common stock under Strategy’s at-the-market offering program. Strategy’s current intention is to maintain a USD Reserve in an amount sufficient to fund at least twelve months of its Dividends

Source
It's hard to get more Ponzi than selling equity to pay dividends

[Omniscient]

Yes, Japan is eerie. Something big is going on there. I've read some very negative analysis of their moves with bonds.

Saylor apparently owns the 650k BTC, it's not leveraged at all. Which is crazy to me because how can MSTR be worth billions less than the fair market value of the underlying asset (BTC)? It's massive manipulation on both MSTR and BTC pricing imho.

Stuff is definitely going down but us lowly forum trolls are just watchers.

[SUI-3183372]

Saylor apparently owns the 650k BTC, it's not leveraged at all.

Only if he bought all 650k BTC using cash.

The reality is Saylor has bought a boatload of BTC through convertible debt, BTC backed loans, and high yield preferreds issued purely to buy more BTC. I'd consider MSTR to be a levered spot BTC proxy, not a generic cash-only holder.

https://decrypt.co/96313/microstrategy-t...re-bitcoin
https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocur...in-3881423
https://www.barrons.com/articles/microst...g-387802cb
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/arti...ebt-scheme

[Omniscient]

Only if he bought all 650k BTC using cash.

The reality is Saylor has bought a boatload of BTC through convertible debt, BTC backed loans, and high yield preferreds issued purely to buy more BTC. I'd consider MSTR to be a levered spot BTC proxy, not a generic cash-only holder.

https://decrypt.co/96313/microstrategy-t...re-bitcoin
https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocur...in-3881423
https://www.barrons.com/articles/microst...g-387802cb
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/arti...ebt-scheme

Did you see this?

[SUI-3183372]

Did you see this?

Yeah, this part is the most ponzi shit ever

The company just created a $1.44 billion emergency cash reserve to pay dividends.

But the article is just fear mongering imo.

Wall Street is valuing the company at negative $10.2B

This is too simplistic. You don't just do BTC value (~$55.9b) – Market cap (~$45.7b) ≈ $10.2b and call that “negative value.” They're totally ignoring the $16b+ in debt + preferred they just listed.

EV would be Market Cap (~$45.7b) + Debt ($8.2b) + preferred ($7.8b) - Cash Reserve ($1.44b) = $60.2b, still above the $56b their BTC is valued.

OP is just pretending that liabilities don't exist

Priced as if the Bitcoin itself is worthless

Wat? MSTR has always traded as a levered BTC proxy. Markets are simply demanding a discount right now due to all of the risks and uncertainty in the air right now. No one wants to pay full price when index exclusion risks loom over MSTR, and that's just one of a dozen different threats they're facing right now.

Here is what they are hiding from you

Lets just ignore the SEC filings then? I guess if Saylor himself isn't tweeting summaries of everything that MSTR does then it's hidden.



https://www.coinspeaker.com/strategy-is-...exclusion/

[Omniscient]

I had some MSTR, lost a lot of value and got out. Had margin account so why not? Meh. It did about as well as my Sui investment at $3.50 which tanked and I finally sold around $2.30.

Overall I don't do huge moves in the market. I do smaller $1-5k investments most of the time trying to eek out short term gains. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. So then why do I do it? For the shitz and gigglez.

I think long-term MSTR is going to be fine but holy moly there is a massive amount of market uncertainty looming. And back to my original topic, I think we're in for a wild ride this week. Most of it negative global market news.

[abdelx95]

I had some MSTR, lost a lot of value and got out. Had margin account so why not? Meh. It did about as well as my Sui investment at $3.50 which tanked and I finally sold around $2.30.

Overall I don't do huge moves in the market. I do smaller $1-5k investments most of the time trying to eek out short term gains. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. So then why do I do it? For the shitz and gigglez.

I think long-term MSTR is going to be fine but holy moly there is a massive amount of market uncertainty looming. And back to my original topic, I think we're in for a wild ride this week. Most of it negative global market news.

So what’s your prevision?
I don’t understand how can btc be the futur egen now there is a huge maniulation adn price keep dropping down form 128k 😬

[Honey Singh]

Honestly, this isn’t an impossible scenario. Tether has briefly depegged before during moments of extreme market stress, and if it happened again even for just a few hours the psychological impact on the market could drag out for weeks. Liquidity shocks and panic selling hit way harder than the actual depeg itself. But the point is which could be the best coin to keep funds in such a crash